The Strait That Holds the World to Ransom - A Guest Perspective

The Strait That Holds the World to Ransom - A Special Guest's Perspective

 

Sometimes individuals, or even governments, become so intoxicated by a minor "victory" that they forget the world is far larger than the deadlock they have created. Today in Tehran, some believe that because their finger is on the trigger and they have taken the world's oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz hostage, the entire world must kneel before them. They speak confidently of a "new Hormuz order" and imagine the era of negotiation is over-that it is now time to collect ransoms and dictate terms to the world's vessels.

But history is a ruthless teacher. Let us look back to 1986; back to Al-Faw. In those days, when we captured Al-Faw, that same sense of invincibility blinded us. We imagined that by seizing that peninsula, we held the key to a victorious end to the war. We grew so arrogant over that conquest that we forgot the enemy was rebuilding itself; we shut down diplomacy and surrendered everything to the "battlefield." What was the result? While commanders were preoccupied with political games, Faw fell in the blink of an eye. That "absolute victory" became the prelude to drinking from the same poisoned chalice whose bitterness still lingers in the throat of history.

Remember Gaddafi's gamble! If Faw seems too distant, look at the fate of Muammar Gaddafi in April 1986. He too, much like you today, was intoxicated by delusion; he supported terrorism in Europe and, by claiming ownership over the Gulf of Sidra, sought to control the world's maritime arteries. Gaddafi thought the world would remain silent in the face of his bombings, but when the world’s patience ran out, they responded.

Jets flew from thousands of miles away to strike the heart of Libya's command centers and airports in Tripoli and Benghazi. Gaddafi, who thought he had built an impregnable fortress, suddenly found himself alone under a rain of bombs. On that day, his allies abandoned him, and he was left with ruins that set Libya back for decades.

Today, the story remains the same. The fact that we can manipulate oil prices with drones and missiles might be a "leverage point," but it is not "global sovereignty." This sentiment is amplified by those familiar with history. Some state that nuclear and missile technology never succeeded in preventing aggression. Real security lies in the satisfaction of the people and engagement with the world, not in concrete walls and that this path ends in a "quagmire" that will drown not only the enemy but ourselves as well.

One must fear the day the world concludes that this "loose screw" can no longer be tightened through words and diplomacy. The global order might tolerate us for a while for the sake of its economy, but it will not back down when it sees its identity under threat. When our actions are interpreted by the world as "maritime piracy" and everyone-from East to West-sees their lifeblood in danger, an isolation will follow that no missile can break through.

Those who believe they stand at the center of the world today should know that natural gateways are the private property of no one. History has shown that whenever the pride of a temporary victory blinds the eye of realism, a heavy fall is imminent. Closing the Strait may be difficult, but for the world, reopening it is not impossible. The great danger is that we, like those that supported Gaddafi become so immersed in the illusion of this power that by the time we wake up, we find we have lost all our infrastructure and roots in the gamble of this "hostage-taking."

Faw fell once, and Tripoli burned once. Let us not allow Hormuz to be our final fall.